Graphic by Brian Yip ’24
While the world’s attention has been focused on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, increasing energy prices, and the Queen’s death, one critical event has gone under the radar.
In the South Caucasus, Azerbaijan launched another attack on Armenia over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. According to Armenian media, hundreds of soldiers on each side died, and 7,600 civilians were displaced from their homes.
Nagorno-Karabakh is the focal point of conflict. It is a contested mountainous region that holds both Armenian and Azeri heritage. During and immediately after the collapse of the USSR, Armenian residents unsuccessfully called for Nagorno-Karabakh’s transfer to Armenia from Azerbaijan. Over the last few decades, Armenia — once the most powerful nation in the Caucasus — has lost control, as Azerbaijan now has the upper hand in both manpower and technology.
Its neighbor to the north, Georgia, does not have a favorable view of Armenia. The dominating Armenian population in Georgia’s Javakheti region has created tension between the two states, with Armenians protesting against Georgian Orthodox clergy’s occupation of Armenian Apostolic churches. Internationally, Georgia voted in favor of UN Resolution 62/243, calling for the withdrawal of Armenia from contested Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia, on the other hand, voted against UN Resolution GA/10708, recognizing seperatist Abkhazia as part of Georgia.
Still, Armenia relies on Georgia as its only way to access the international market. Turkey has blockaded Armenia since 1993 and demanded withdrawal from Nagorno-Karabakh as a precondition for lifting the blockade. This blockade has devastated the Armenian economy: Armenia has few natural resources and relies on energy imports from its neighbors, which are now no longer available. Its solution is to reactivate the Metsamor nuclear power plant, triggering further protests from Turkey over environmental concerns.
At the same time, Armenia has been excluded from lucrative economic deals between its neighbors: the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline carrying Azeri oil, the South Caucasus Pipeline carrying natural gas, and the newly operational Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway.
Through the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Armenia’s only natural ally is Russia. The Armenian military is weak compared to Turkey and Azerbaijan, so it relies heavily on Russian technology. Thus, ties with Russia create a self-reinforcing process where the military’s demands necessitate closer partnership with Russia at every turn. Before last year, Russia was a stabilizing influence in the Caucasus, brokering peace deals after every Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and deploying peacekeepers.
However, Russia’s intervention ended when its own invasion of Ukraine was bogged down and exposed its hidden weaknesses. Russia focused itself on Ukraine, turning away from its usual goal of force projection. The absence of Russian power in the Caucasus left a power vacuum which Turkey is poised to seize. With Turkey’s support, Azerbaijan launched the September attacks on Armenia.
Despite all the difficulties holding Nagorno-Karabakh entails, it is a vital part of the Armenian national identity. Following the Armenian defeat in 2020 that led to the confirmation of Azeri war gains in Nagorno-Karabakh and the cessation of land gained by Armenia in the first war, the enraged protesters stormed the parliament building and attacked Mr. Ararat Mirzoyan, then Speaker of the House. Protestors demanded Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s resignation, which forced Pashinyan to call for an election. Pashinyan’s party retained the majority but lost 16.49% of the vote, which translated to 11 seats given to new opposition parties. Future territorial losses will no doubt open the door for further domestic instability.
Armenia must make a decision: either hang on to Nagorno-Karabakh for as long as possible while suffering painful military defeats, facing domestic instability, and losing time to advance economically or tear off the band-aid and give up the region altogether. It is impossible to hold Nagorno-Karabakh long-term: following the 2020 war, the only remaining corridor into the region is tenuously controlled by Russian peacekeepers, essentially isolating it.
Giving up Nagorno-Karabakh will be a traumatic experience for all Armenians, but the benefits outweigh the costs. Under this plan, Armenia trades land for a better future. Maintaining control of a contested war zone is a constant drain on both material and human resources that can be better used in civil society. For example, during the 2020 war, Armenia mobilized its domestic industry, which was a major cause of a sharp 7.5% drop in GDP. The ever-present threat of war forces Armenia on the back foot, unable to focus on the region’s peaceful development.
If Armenia evacuates the region, it can turn its full attention toward improving the country. Refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh can further boost the economy, giving Armenia a step up. At the same time, Nagorno-Karabakh-less Armenia will no longer be diplomatically isolated. Turkey agreed to normalized relations in the Zurich Protocol on the condition of an Armenian withdrawal from Nagorno-Karabakh. Exchanging the region for Turkish friendship is a win in the long run. A friendlier Turkey can restrain Azerbaijan from an unlikely adventure into Armenia territory. Yet, revival of economic ties with Turkey is the most valuable prize. It will shorten the distance between Armenia and foreign markets, with the potential of Armenia being included in future deals in the South Caucasus.
At the same time, Armenia, without the need to constantly defend itself, can safely detach from the Russian-led Eurasian Union and pivot to the Western sphere. Armenia and the European Union (EU) have recently signed a Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA). The CEPA paves the way for Armenia to reap the benefits of mutual trade, development, and exchange with the EU. If Armenia manages to completely exit the Eurasian Union and eventually join the EU, it will be a great boon for its future.
There is a bright future for Armenia, but only if it has the will to seize the opportunity. An unburdened Armenia can become a full member of the Caucasian community, uplift its economy, and join the rest of the free world in prosperity. If not, there is no way out for Armenia from its present situation. It will always remain under the shadow of Turkic states until the Nagorno-Karabakh situation is resolved by force.
